Wasde Highlights - Round of harvest upgrades weighs on wheat prices
• Monthly USDA crop report upgrades wheat harvests in Argentina, Australia, Canada EU and Russia
• Rapeseeed carryout stocks now expected to close 2025/26 at record high
• Forecast for US corn exports lifted again, even as Ukraine’s harvest and shipments downgraded
Wheat prices held onto modest losses after the USDA, in its last monthly Wasde crop report of 2025, lifted its forecast for world stocks by a little more than the market had expected.
The revision reflected upgrades to estimates for 2025/26 harvests in several major exporters, including the EU and Russia.
Rapeseed prices for February-26 shed 1.1% in Paris. The Wasde raised by 1.2Mt to a record 12.5Mt its forecast for world rapeseed stocks at the close of this season.
Soybean prices also remained in negative territory in Chicago, despite the USDA making few changes to its US or world balance sheet estimates.
However, Chicago corn prices extended headway to 0.9% for March-26 delivery. The USDA made an unexpectedly large downgrade to its estimate for US carryout stocks from 2025/26, citing an increased export forecast.
For further Wasde highlights, see below:
Corn
For corn, the USDA’s December Wasde report downgraded the forecast for US stocks at the close of 2025/26 by 3.2Mt to 51.5Mt, a significantly bigger downgrade than the 750Kt trim that traders had expected.
The revision reflected an upgrade to the 2025/26 US corn export forecast, as CRM Agri heralded in its Weekly Grains Outlook earlier on Tuesday, of 3.2Mt to 81.3Mt. That takes the estimate even further above the current export record of 72.6Mt set last season.
“Export inspection data showed robust foreign demand during November and implies total shipments during the September-November quarter will likely exceed 800Mbu [20.3Mt], surpassing the prior high set during 2007,” the USDA said.
At a global level, the forecast for Ukraine stocks at the close of 2025/26 was reduced too, by 80Kt to 850Kt, on a “sharply lower” harvest estimate.
The USDA cited “reductions to both area and yield based on reported [Ukraine] government data to date”, and noted that “harvest has been slow as a result of wet conditions in key growing areas”.
The downgrades were offset in part by an increase to the figure for Argentine inventories, on a lower estimate for the South American country’s exports for 2024/25.
Nonetheless, the 2.2Mt cut to the forecast for world corn stocks at the close of this season exceeded the 600Kt downgrade that traders had pencilled in.
Soybeans
The USDA left its estimates for US soybean supply and demand this season unchanged, surprising many traders who had expected some allowance for the country’s slow export pace so far.
The UDSA left at 7.9Mt its forecast for US soybean stocks at the end of 2025/26, rather than initiating the 330Kt upgrade a market poll had identified.
Forecasts for supply and demand in other major soybean growing or importing countries were little changed too. The estimate for world carryout stocks, at 122.4Mt, was close to expectations.
Wheat
The Wasde also left the US wheat balance sheet unchanged, albeit with some minor changes in demand allocations between wheat classes. The USDA trimmed its forecast for spring wheat exports, while increasing expectations for shipments of white wheat.
At a global level, however, the USDA added to the wheat harvest upgrade it made last month, when it added 12.7Mt to the world production estimate.
This time, the upgrade was a further 8.9Mt, or which nearly all was attributed to the large exporters, whose supply levels are particularly important in setting world prices.
The Canada crop estimate was lifted by 23.0Mt to 40.0Mt, in line with the official Canadian estimate revealed last week, while Argentina’s harvest was lifted by 2.0Mt to 24.0Mt, “on widespread favourable conditions throughout the growing season, especially in Buenos Aires, the largest wheat producing region”.
The EU’s harvest-25 was upgraded by 1.7Mt, with 1.0Mt apiece added to Australian and Russian results.
The forecast for world stocks was lifted by a more modest 3.5Mt, although still an upgrade larger than the market had expected.
Most of the inventory revision, 2.7Mt, was made to stockpiles in the top exporters, notably for Russia, for which the carryout stocks forecast was upgraded by 1.0Mt to 13.2Mt.
The UK’s harvest was downgraded by 150Kt to 11.9Mt, a revision carried through into a lower 2025/26 carryout estimate, of 2.1Mt, representing a drawdown of 550Kt over the season.
