June 20, 2019

Rain makes grain until it doesn’t

After a prolonged period of dryness up until early spring which spooked operators who feared a repeat of 2018, Mother Nature changed its mind and things have made a staggering U-turn. Heavy rains have been observed across most of the country last week resulting in localised flash floods, particularly in the northern counties where quality concerns are now on the rise due to lodged crops. According to official data, the first half of June 2019 was one of the wettest in more than 30 years with more than 100mm in Lincolnshire between June 1st and 15th compared to just 13mm last year and about 30mm on average.

However, the potential losses in the North could be more than offset by the above average yields expected further south and a 15+MMT 2019 UK wheat crop would easily be achievable. From now until harvest, crops only need more sunshine and warmth, precisely what the most recent European weather model has in store for the next 10 days. On the physical market, an increased demand for feed wheat/barley is currently noticed due to ‘expensive’ maize prices whilst the harvest is just around the corner.

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June 20, 2019