On May 12th, the USDA released its May WASDE report today, which includes the first official look toward next season.
Little old crop supply and demand estimate were changed, but looking to next season, the US market is looking tighter. Production in 2022/23 is estimated at 367.3Mt down from 383.9Mt in 2021/22 previously, with ending stocks projected at a tight 34.5Mt.
Following the fast export pace of old crop soy, ending stocks have been revised down further to 6.4Mt, down from 7.1Mt last month. However, new crop production is estimated at a record 126.3Mt, which is up from 120.7Mt in 2021/22 with a slight recovery in stocks.
Old crop wheat ending stocks in the US were trimmed to 17.8Mt, down from 18.5Mt estimated in the April WASDE, however the main focus is looking to next season and with an estimated 47.1Mt crop only up slightly from the spring drought impacted 44.8Mt in 2021/22, ending stocks in 2022/23 are projected to be at the lowest level since 2013/14.
The largest unknown arguably for next season is Ukraine, and the USDA is quick to point out that war has ‘significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region’.
Production estimates for next season sit at 19.5Mt, down significantly from the 42.1Mt this season. Export projections at 9Mt are also down from an expected 23Mt this season.
Production forecasts fell to 21.5Mt, from 33Mt in 2021/22. Like with corn, export estimates were also lower to just 10Mt, down from 19Mt this season.
Production is estimated at 80Mt for next season, up slightly from 75.2Mt this season, while exports are estimated at 39Mt.
Although there has been a large coverage of drought conditions in Europe, official early USDA wheat production estimates for next season are 136.5Mt, only marginally down on the 138.4Mt last season. However, due to export demand increasing by 5Mt to 36Mt, ending stocks are forecast to remain under pressure at 10.6Mt.
After last season’s drought, production estimates are recovering.
Up from just 21.7Mt of wheat harvested in 2021/22, and early production estimates at 33Mt are a marked recovery. While rapeseed estimates are also encouraging at 20Mt, up from just 12.6Mt.
In a bit of a surprise, old crop corn production estimates were maintained at 116Mt, and old crop soybean production estimates were also maintained at 125Mt. A long way off, but 2022/23 estimates for corn and soy are at 126Mt and 149Mt, respectively.