March 11, 2022

March WASDE Overview


Amid the large uncertainty as Russia continues to wage war against Ukraine, the March WASDE was always going to be a cautious report, especially for the Black Sea with most of the alterations expected.


The major changes in the March WASDE for wheat have been an increase in production estimates for Australia, up from 34Mt to 36.3Mt, with anticipated full season exports also increased to 27.5Mt, up 2Mt.

In regards to the Black Sea, Russian exports have been revised down by 2Mt to 35Mt, with an increase to ending stocks, while for Ukraine, exports were revised down by 4Mt to 20Mt.


US export estimates for corn were increased to 63.5Mt, with a subsequent fall in stocks from 39.11Mt to 36.57Mt.

Changes to South America were minimal with a 1Mt reduction to corn production in Argentina, while full season export estimates were maintained for both Argentina and Brazil.

Estimates for Ukraine were for a fall in exports from 33.5Mt to 27.5Mt, while estimates for Major Imports requirements were left unchanged.


For the US, and amid what has continued to be a strong export campaign, full season export estimates have increased from 55.79Mt to 56.88Mt, with a reduction in ending stocks from 8.84Mt to 7.77Mt.

For South America, estimates for production in Argentina were reduced to 43Mt, down from 45Mt, while for Brazil production estimates were lowered from 134Mt to 127Mt. With reductions to South American production, Chinese full-season import estimates were lowered from 97Mt to 94Mt.

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March 11, 2022