The Economist - How grain has gone from famine to feast
In fact, Mr Trump’s policies may well be dampening near-term prices. Wary of presidential surprises, American farmers are “front-loading” their exports, which is “more something you see in Russia”, notes Mike Verdin of CRM AgriCommodities, a consultancy. Uncertainty and high interest rates have also pushed investment funds away from commodities and into other assets. Those that remain are betting grain prices will fall. Having hit a record in May, net short positions on Chicago wheat contracts remain high.
"Ideas of a recovery in Russian shipments are overshadowed by a firmer rouble than a year ago ... and by a rebuild in the export tax," consultancy CRM Agri said.