Today the USDA released their April WASDE, which overall was a fairly conservative WASDE, only making small changes.
US wheat stocks were revised higher in the April WASDE, with stocks up from 17.77Mt to 18.45Mt, due to downwardly revised consumption and export projections.
Sluggish exports were also a theme for EU wheat, with export projections cut from 37.5Mt to 34Mt, resulting in exports being revised higher to 11.36Mt from 9.58Mt, outweighing a slight increase in consumption estimates.
Ukraine wheat export estimates were revised lower by just 1Mt to 19Mt, and Russian wheat exports revised higher to 33Mt.
US corn supply and demand estimates were left virtually unchanged from last month, with only minor changes to feed consumption, but overall stocks were left unchanged.
Brazilian full season corn production was increased by 2Mt to 116Mt as the prospects for the second Brazilian corn crop remain encouraging, echoing yesterday’s assessment by Conab.
Exports out of Ukraine were revised lower to 23Mt, down from the 27.5Mt estimate in March.
Chinese import projections for corn were trimmed, down 3Mt to 23Mt, resulting in reduced consumption outlooks.
Following what has been a strong export sales campaign recently, US export estimates were again revised slightly higher, to 57.56Mt, with further trims to ending stock projections at 7.07Mt.
The USDA also trimmed production estimates for Brazil, down to 125Mt, from 127Mt last month. Conab estimates are for a smaller crop, so this was a cautious approach by the USDA.
Estimates for Chinas imports also fell, down to 91Mt from a previously estimated 94Mt.
Alongside the WASDE, this week has been a large data week, stating with the first release of the USDA crop progress report.
Winter wheat was the focus having enter winter in poor conditions. US winter wheat was rated at: 18% Very Poor, 18% Poor, 35% Fair, 27% Good and 3% Excellent ( 30% G&E ). In the last crop progress report before winter, the USDA had reported that winter wheat was rated at 8% Very Poor, 15% Poor, 33% Fair, 38% Good and 6% Excellent. The on-going drought conditions continue to raise concerns for US winter wheat, with the proportion of wheat rated good and excellent having deteriorated. This week has yet again recorded little rainfall.
Later in the week, and the Brazilian organisation Conab released their production estimates for Brazil, with a still very much drought impacted soybean crop. While confidence in the second safrina corn crop continues due to better planting conditions, however harvest remains a long way off and yields are far from certain.
Moving into spring, and alongside the uncertainty regarding the war in Ukraine, the prospects for harvest’22 will be key, conditions in the US remain dry for winter wheat, while there is a large expectation that Canadian production will bounce back for harvest’22.