September 26, 2019

37 days until Brexit?

In the wake of emerging global weather concerns in key exporting countries of grains, dissipating harvest pressure and export demand, UK wheat futures have continued to recover from their September lows for a third consecutive week. Physical wheat prices have also crept higher with bases improving, yet below the average £5.50/T for this time of the season. However the Brexit news continue to dominate the UK grain landscape and push traders/exporters to be extremely cautious post Oct 31st with MPs back earlier than expected from their ‘unlawful break’.

The future of the UK grain exports programme remain highly uncertain at a time when accessing the EU market has never been so important in recent years following a very good 2019 harvest not just for wheat which is seen at 16+MMT but for barley as well. The discount of the latter feedstuff to feed wheat continues to widen, currently standing at about £15/T compared with just £5/T last year and £11/T on a 5-year average for this time of the season.

After a prolonged period of dryness since the disturbing rains mid-August, wet conditions are set to greatly improve soil moisture ahead of winter cereals plantings with more than 30mm forecast in East Anglia for the week ahead.

September 26, 2019