Mixed signals from USDA, weather and geopolitics

This week markets grappled wit USDA numbers, failed talks between Russia and Ukraine and elevated discussions around weather and crop prospects. 

Wheat futures leaped in Chicago, as dryness concerns and a USDA forecast for the second smallest sowings in more than a century enhanced ideas of a weaker US harvest this year, helping headway in European prices too.

Our oilseeds analysis covered EU rapeseed futures are at seven‑month highs, driven by reduced imports and ongoing supply risks. But with Australian canola now arriving and crush margins constrained, the market is losing momentum. Prices may struggle to break higher unless new catalysts emerge.

Wheat, corn and barley markets remain range‑bound as ample global supplies, firm exporter currencies and mixed weather risks limit upside potential despite bursts of volatility and fund‑driven short‑covering.

Also in focus was the rising US wheat futures markets, where we explored the implications for European wheat prices and historical trends and prices spreads