Crop Watch - Just-in-time rains boost Brazil's soybean crop prospects
December rains have supported an increase in Brazil soybean output expectations
Expectations for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production have improved with a uptick in rains in the key central growing belt.
A dry start to the region’s wet season gave way to a rainy December, including in Mato Grosso, the top producing state (chart above). The moisture has fostered an improvement in yield prospects, as reflected in an increased NDVI vegetation index score (chart below).
A similar pattern is seen in neighbouring Goias, the second-ranked soybean growing state, with prospects promising too for third-ranked Parana, in the south.
Market expectations for Brazil’s soybean crop have ticked up to 178-180Mt, above the 175.0Mt forecast by the USDA, and the current record of 171-172Mt produced last season.
Early reports from the harvest support ideas of a strong result although with less than 1% of the crop in the barn, such talk should be taken with caution. Brazil’s soybean harvest does not wind up until May, meaning there is plenty of scope yet for weather to influence yields.
