Wheat prices stabilise as China buys from Argentina, Australia

Wheat prices found their feet, supported by reports of rising Chinese imports, while rapeseed prices broke back above €465/t, buoyed by firmer oil and ideas of a resumption in Canada-China trade.

 

Australia and Argentina were, between them, reported to have shipped about 620Kt of wheat to China last month. That would represent the best month for Australian wheat exports to China since April 2024, and the most from Argentina since 1997, according to Reuters.

 

The market is particularly sensitive to demand from China, given the country’s substantial potential for imports, which reached 11.9Mt in 2023 and 11.0Mt in 2024, before sliding last year to 3.3Mt as of November.

 

Hot and dry weather for part of the growing season for last year’s crop, and a late-year rise in domestic prices, have raised some questions over whether production was as large as official data show.

 

The report helped wheat prices stabilise after Monday’s USDA data slew which proved largely negative for prices, showing US winter wheat sowings for harvest-26 bigger than had been thought – although down year on year – and upgrading estimates for the 2025 Argentine and Russian harvest, albeit to levels already voiced by other commentators.

 

Furthermore, Ikar on Tuesday lifted its forecast for Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export potential to 46.5Mt, from 44.1Mt, factoring in Rosstat’s official production figure of 91.4Mt issued late last month.

 

However, Ikar added that the weighting of production towards central and eastern Russia raised questions over whether the figure would be achieved. CRM Agri has long been highlighting the hurdle to Russia’s export prospects from a harvest-25 which disappointed in the key Southern area close to the Black Sea, but beat expectations in areas such as Siberia from where transport to port faces logistical and cost challenges.

 

Wheat futures for March-26 edged 0.4% higher in late morning deals in Chicago before encountering resistance at their 20-day moving average.

 

The Paris March-26 milling wheat contract traded 0.7% higher in late deals, back above €190/t, while London feed wheat futures for May-26 recovered from a contract low of £167.55 to show marginal gains.

 

Rapeseed futures for May-26 added 1.0% in late deals, on track for what would be their first close above €465/t in four weeks, supported by firmness in Winnipeg canola futures on hopes that a visit by Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, to Beijing, will lead to China ditching punitive tariffs on imports of the oilseed from Canada.

 

A rise in crude oil prices, on worries over disruptions to Iranian supplies stemming from internal unrest, also provided support. Brent crude traded up 2.5% to $65.49/bbl.

 

Chicago corn futures for March-26 - which slumped by 5.4% on Monday after the USDA issued an unexpected upgrade to its estimate for the US 2025 harvest – also stabilised.

 

However, soybeans for March-26 shed 0.5% to return close to a $10.40/bu support level, weighed by a 2.0% tumble in March-26 soymeal futures.