Wheat prices battle with chart resistance, even as crude tops $100/Bbl

Profit-taking kept grain markets in check, even as Brent crude rose back above $100/Bbl, as reports that Iran had seized two contain ships near the Strait of Hormuz revived market worries over the Middle East.

 

Iran said that it had captured two container ships on Wednesday, after firing on them and at another vessel, in what marked the country’s first vessel seizures since the war with Israel and the US began on 28 February.

 

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard accused the ships, which included the Greek-operated Epaminondas, of operating without the necessary permits and of tampering with their navigation systems. The Epaminondas reported damage to its bridge after being hit by gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades from an Iranian gunboat.

 

The move revived concern over Middle East tensions, after US President Donald Trump had soothed nerves overnight by saying he would extend Washington’s ceasefire with Tehran, amid an attempt to seek to continue peace talks.

 

The US president said that he had been asked by Pakistan, which is mediating between Washington and Tehran to “hold our attack on the country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal”.

 

Brent crude futures for June-26, having fallen earlier, recovered to stand up 3.4% in late deals at $101.78/Bbl, rising back above their 20-day moving average.

 

Many other commodities gained too, amid concerns in many cases of supply shocks related to the Iran conflict. Aluminium added 1.9%, returning close to a four-year high set last week, with copper rising in line. The Bcom commodities index gained 1.4% in a third successive session of recovery.

 

However, grains struggled to hold on to early headway, as traders took profits on recent gains.

 

In the US, hard red winter wheat, which has attracted much market focus thanks to the drought in US Plains where it is grown, headed sideways after again encountering resistance just above $6.60/Bu, July-26 basis.

 

News on world wheat output was mixed, with weather forecasts dry in the US Plains showing rains, but only for eastern areas.

 

In the Black Sea, SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s harvest this year by 2.1Mt to 89.7Mt. However, there were also reports of cold weather delaying sowings of Russian spring wheat, as well as Ukrainian corn.

 

Chicago soft red wheat futures, the world benchmark, traded 0.2% lower in late morning deals for July-26, after earlier running into resistance at $6.20/Bu.

 

Minneapolis spring wheat for July-26 managed 0.1% gains, but remained marginally below the near-two-year high reached in the last session.

 

In Europe, Paris milling wheat for September shed 0.2%, falling back after encountering resistance at €210/t.

 

Ideas remain of comfortable EU stocks at the close of 2025/26. Weekly export data showed soft wheat shipments reaching 19.0Mt four weeks earlier than last season, but three months behind the pace of 2023/24.

 

London feed wheat futures for November-26 edged 0.1% higher in late deals, holding just ahead of its 20-day moving average.

 

Paris rapeseed futures for August-26 added 0.3% to clear €500.00/t, supported by the rise in crude oil prices. EU rapeseed imports last week were a solid 95.3Kt, as sizeable volumes of Canadian canola made up for a blank week reported for imports from Australia.