Global Crop Watch - Brazil's safrinha harvest weighs on corn market
• Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest under way, at average pace
• Crop expected to be large, but below earlier expectations
• Downgrades centred on later-harvest states such as Goias
• Suggests early peak to harvest pressure on prices
One of the sources of pressure on the corn market, helping drive Chicago prices to six-month lows, has been the onset of Brazil’s safrinha harvest.
Brazilian farmers had, as of a week ago, reaped 3.0% of their safrinha corn crop, which accounts for more than three-quarters of the country’s overall corn output. That harvest progress is in line with the three-year average.
Early results confirm that it will be a large harvest too – if coming in below last year’s record 113Mt result, and indeed missing early expectations, before the early onset of the dry season in many central areas reduced production hopes.
Conab, Brazil’s official ag bureau, on Thursday trimmed its forecast for the crop by 600Kt to 107.9Mt, taking it further below early-year expectations of a 110.5Mt result. It highlighted a disappointing rainy season which “affected crops sown outside the ideal planting window”, leaving them more vulnerable to the early start of the dry season.
In Mato Grosso - the top producing state, and the earliest to harvest – seasonal pressure has dragged corn prices (in dollar terms) 14% below mid-April highs, to a nine-month low of $134/t.
During that period, FOB export prices in Paranagua, Brazil have gone from a $3/t premium to US Gulf offers to a $13/t discount, highlighting the weight on the market from swelling supplies.
However, there is potential that harvest pressure may be somewhat front-loaded, given the geographic make-up of Brazil’s crop.
In early-harvesting states such as Mato Grosso and Parana estimates for safrinha corn output have expanded during 2026.
It is in the likes of Mato Grosso do Sul and, especially, Goias - where harvest has yet to begin – where safrinha hopes have been downgraded.
This suggests that, assuming state crop expectations prove true, peak pressure on the corn market from Brazil’s safrinha harvest may be a little earlier than usual, and more than usual influenced by the Mato Grosso price cycle, which has a habit of bottoming out in July.
