Fall in US wheat rating to record low lifts prices in Chicago and Europe
• Official US winter wheat crop rating slips to record low
• US corn, soybean crop rating short of expectations too
• Europe faces return of hot weather, with mixed crop impacts
• Wheat prices rise in Chicago, London and Paris
Wheat prices rose in all three major markets for the first time in June, after an unexpected fall in the weekly US winter wheat condition score to a record low raised expectations of a crop downgrade.
The USDA, in its weekly Crop Progress report, issued lower-than-expected condition ratings for all three major crops, corn, soybeans and winter wheat.
We cover some of the long term factors and their implications for grain markets in our latest grain video outlook.
Spring wheat - for which the proportion of crop rated “good” or “excellent” rose by 5 points week on week to 52% - bucked the trend, exceeding market expectations by 3 points.
By contrast, for winter wheat, the rating sank by 1 point to 25% good or excellent - the lowest reading for any week on data going back to 1995, and defying market expectations for a 1-point improvement.
The decline reflected widespread deterioration, geographically.
Ratings declined in Plains states such as Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma, hard red winter wheat-growers, but also in the Midwest in the likes of Indiana and Michigan, soft red winter wheat producers, and in Oregon and Washington in the north west, states which focus on white wheat.
The unexpected decline spurred ideas that the USDA may, in Thursday’s monthly Wasde crop report, trim further its forecast for US winter wheat production this year, even from the current estimate of a 54-year low.
In previous years of weak ratings, including 1996, 2022 and 2023, June Wasde reports have witnessed wheat crop upgrades. However, crop ratings have been on upward trends by then, as highlighted on Monday in CRM Agri’s Weekly Grains Outlook.
Chicago soft red winter wheat futures for July-26 added 1.4% in late morning deals, maintaining a cushion above their 200-day moving average, while hard red winter wheat for July-26 gained 1.5%, after earlier testing support at its 100-day moving average.
Minneapolis spring wheat for July-26, slowed by the improved US crop rating, gained a more modest 0.3%, before finding resistance at its 200-day moving average.
In Europe, Paris milling wheat for September-26 was helped 0.6% higher in late trading, after earlier testing support, for a second successive session, at the key €200/t mark.
London feed wheat for November-26 added 0.4% to return above £180/t and its 100-day moving average, which it closed below in the last session for the first time in nearly four months.
Europe faces a return next week to unusually hot temperatures, which may hamper grainfill for later-developing wheat crops, but help drydown for mature ones.
Corn futures gained too in Chicago, adding 0.9% for July-26, after the USDA reported the US crop holding week on week at 67% good or excellent, rather than improving by 2 points as the market had expected. The seasonal five-year average is 69% good or excellent.
Soybean condition slid by 1 point week on week to 65% good or excellent - 3 points below the reading traders had forecast, and 1 point below average.
In both cases, the data raised questions over whether the USDA will in the Wasde see the data as cause for trimming US yield expectations for 2026.
Nonetheless, soybean futures for July-26 eased by 0.1% in Chicago, weighed by lingering concerns over Chinese demand, which some saw as potentially forcing a Wasde downgrade to hopes for US exports of the oilseed.
Rapeseed futures for August-26 added 0.2% in Paris, supported by data showing a third successive week of slowdown in EU imports of the oilseed.
At 4.9Mt, EU imports are approaching the end of 2025/26 at a pace down 29% year on year.
For more detailed analysis, see CRM Agri’s Weekly Grains Outlook and Weekly Oilseeds Outlook.
