'End' of Iran-US ceasefire lifts oil, returns rapeseed above €530
- Donald Trump declares Iran-US ceasefire as ’over’
- Crude oil bounces 7%, lifting rapeseed, soyoil too
- Cereal markets subdued, amid focus on Friday’s Wasde
Rapeseed futures rose back above €530/t, and soyoil rose the most in two months, after Donald Trump declared the US ceasefire with Iran “over”, sending oil prices soaring.
Speaking at the Nato summit in Ankara, the US president termed Iran’s leaders “scum” and “sick people”, and said that “as far as I’m concerned, it [the ceasefire] is over”.
“We’ll probably hit them [Iran] hard again tonight,” he added later, in comments which followed Tuesday’s exchange of strikes by Iranian and US forces.
The prospect of renewed Iran-US hostilities, and fresh threats to Middle East oil supplies, sent Brent crude 7.0% higher, before it encountered resistance at $80/Bbl.
Prices of ags used to make biodiesel found support too. Chicago soyoil futures for September-26 stood 3.1% higher in late morning deals, their strongest daily performance since April, while in Paris rapeseed futures for November-26 traded up 1.7% in late deals at four-week highs above €530/t.
In Winnipeg, canola futures for November-26 added 2.8%, aiming at their first close in a month above $780/t.
However, early buying in cereals ran out of steam, weighed by uncertainty ahead of Friday’s USDA Wasde crop report, and disappointment that China, while purchasing US soybeans, had apparently not bought corn or wheat as well, as has been expected under the reported agreement between presidents Trump and Xi for China to buy $17bn a year of US ags, excluding soybeans.
The USDA reported Chinese purchases of 472Kt of US soybeans, split between this season and next, with market rumour suggesting additional orders, to take total new crop buying to roughly 1.5Mt.
Corn futures for September-26 shed 1.8%, amid ideas that any crop damage from Plains heat expected over the next fortnight would come too late to alter USDA expectations of a strong US 2026 harvest.
The USDA reported in a daily weather outlook that “heat will begin to expand across the northern Rockies, reaching the northern Plains during the weekend.
“Weekend high temperatures should exceed 100°F and possibly approach 110°F in eastern Montana, northeastern Wyoming, and the Dakotas.”
However, it added that further east in the Corn Belt itself, “most… summer crops have adequate to locally surplus soil moisture - and are experiencing favourable temperatures - as they move into and through reproduction”.
Wheat futures for September-26 were pulled 1.3% lower in Chicago, weighed too by talk of promising yields from the Black Sea harvest, even as Europe swelters under another heat dome.
Paris corn for November-26 fell by 1.4% nonetheless, continuing to correct its unusually large premium to milling wheat, which edged 0.1% higher for September-26 delivery.
London feed wheat for November-26 settled 0.3% lower, at the £180.00/t support level.
