Crop Watch - French wheat sowing pace above average
French winter wheat sowings for harvest-26 have continued apace.
At 79% complete as of a week ago (chart top left), they were running 20 points ahead of the pace a year ago, when a wet autumn slowed plantings.
Versus the five-year average, sowings were nearly 5 points ahead, equivalent to 3-4 days.
The implications for harvest-26 of a solid autumn sowings prospects are, terms of area, positive. Decent autumn plantings progress tends to mean more of them. The correlation since 2014 between area and 3 November sowings progress is 81%.
In both 2015 and 2016, when French soft wheat area last topped 5.0Mha, 3 November sowings progress had exceeded 90%.
However, versus yield (chart bottom right), the correlation with sowings progress is a weak 14%. Ie the speed of plantings, at least as of early November is a poor indicator of harvest productivity the next summer.
Early ideas are of EU wheat plantings holding in line with year-ago levels, despite the relatively low price of the grain versus rival such as rapeseed.
Global conditions
In Western Europe, the UK, southern France and northern Germany faces a wet week ahead, with heavy rainfall expected in Portugal, while other parts experience scattered showers. The pattern for the week of 19 November is expected to be similar, albeit with rains petering out in Portugal but extending coverage in France and Germany.
Further east, eastern Europe and most of the Black Sea region face a dry and warm fortnight. Central Russia, and western Romania, will prove wet, particularly over the coming weekend.
In the US, the Midwest will receive scattered showers this week, but ample rains next week. The Plains, where winter wheat sowings are close to finishing, will prove largely dry. Temperatures will prove unusually warm through to late November.
In Brazil, short-term weather maps have removed much-needed rains from the forecast for central Brazil. However, the following week will prove wetter, potentially easing worries over dryness amid the latter stages of soybean sowings. Southern Brazil will prove wet through the next two weeks. However, Argentina will prove largely dry, as might be expected amid the expected onset of what is forecast to be a weak La Nina.
In Australia, Western Australia will stay dry, helping harvest progress. However, in eastern Australian, combines in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland will continue to negotiate wet conditions.
