Cash market wheat volumes soar as prices rise

Farmers have used the recovery in wheat prices as an opportunity to sell, with gusto. The move highlights the challenges markets will face to sustain a rally over the coming months, with global farmers having been reluctant sellers so far this season, and many going into harvest with little sold.

In the two weeks from 24 October, trading volumes hit 574Kt, ADHB data show, more than double the average 2025 pace.

The selling came as London futures prices kicked off a recovery which took them, temporarily, back over £180/t for the first time in nearly two months, May-26 basis. However, a quest simply to “reward the rally” – the first since harvest - explains only part of the upsurge in activity.

Many growers seem to have scheduled sales anyway, likely for cashflow reasons. Volumes in the week to 23 October, when futures stayed floored below £175/t, were already high.

Feed wheat volumes were particularly large, at 417Kt over the two weeks from 24 October. With milling premiums modest, bread wheat sales remained well below 2025 highs.

By delivery period, volumes for late in 2025/26, and maybe next season, were notably large, exploiting a carry which has narrowed since. May-26 futures have lost ground versus close-to-expiry November-25 ones.