Analysis of June USDA WASDE

Below details on key changes in the Wasde report

Wheat - US crop downgraded to 56-year low

The USDA cut its forecast for US wheat stocks at the close of 2026/27 by 500Kt to a three-year low of 20.3Mt on a reduced harvest estimate, cut to 42.0Mt.

The downgrade, mainly on a cut in hopes for the drought-hit hard red winter wheat crop, took the overall harvest figure, last month pegged at a 54-year low of 42.5Mt, to the lowest since 1970.

The forecast for Australia’s newly-sown crop was lowered too, by 2.0Mt to 28.0Mt, “on lower harvested area”.

However, Russia’s crop was upgraded by 2.0Mt to 88.0Mt. “Moderate to heavy May rainfall provided consistent and sufficient moisture” for winter wheat, if making for a “challenging” spring wheat sowing window, the USDA said, echoing CRM Agri analysis earlier on Thursday.

Ukraine’s crop was upgraded too, by 500Kt to 23.5Mt.

The global harvest was pegged at 820.1Mt, up 1.0Mt from last month, although down by 24.2Mt from last season, when a string of major growers including Argentina, the EU and Russia scored record yields.

World wheat carryout stocks from 2026/27 were pegged at 275.4Mt, a 400Kt upgrade, and a little above market expectations.

Nontheless, the forecast for major exporters’ inventories, which are particularly influential for prices, was cut by 3.5Mt to 60.5Mt, largely thanks to a reduced Ukrainian figure on increased export hopes.

Corn - Strong South American harvests boost supplies

For corn, the USDA in its Wasde report made the most notable changes to 2025/26 production, lifted by 14.0Mt to 1,312.7Mt on a global basis, led by increased estimates for South America’s ongoing harvests.

The Argentine crop was upgraded by a further 2.0Mt to 61.0Mt, a forecast which still remains short of some local estimates.

The USDA said its upgrade was “based on reporting from in-country sources, which indicate larger area and favourable harvest results to date”

For Brazil, in the early stages of its safrinha harvest, the output estimate was lifted by 3.0Mt to 138.0Mt, with output figures for India and Paraguay raised too.

For 2026/27, the USDA made few changes to US or foreign balance sheet forecasts.

An upgrade of 3.7Mt to 281.2Mt in the forecast for end-season stocks, exceeding market expectations, reflected higher carry-in inventories, factoring in the extra 2025/26 production.

Soybeans - Lack of China trade saps US exports, but crushers thrive

For soybeans, the USDA also raised its forecast for Argentina’s ongoing 2025/26 harvest, saying that “timely rainfall during the growing season for both first and second soybeans helped boost yields”.

For the US itself, the forecast for the 2025/26 crush was raised by 500Kt to a record 72.1Mt “on higher soybean meal exports and domestic disappearance”.

However, the revision was offset by – another – downgrade to the forecast for US soybean exports, “on available US Census data”.

US 2025/26 soybean exports, which the USDA initially forecast at 49.4Mt, are now expected to reach only 41.1Mt, a 13-year low.

For 2026/27, the USDA made few changes to forecasts for soybean supply and demand. The world stocks estimate, upgraded by only 100Kt to 124.9Mt, came in short of market expectations of a 125.4Mt figure.

For soybeans, as for corn, 2026/27 does not start until September.