Two week's in grain markets are never the same
Two week’s in grain markets are never the same
Agricultural markets began September with strong gains before sentiment shifted sharply. Wheat reached multi-year highs in Chicago, Paris and London, supported by concerns over Black Sea shipping and stronger European export data. However, prices fell back after Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to a possible opportunity for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.
CRM Agri’s latest analysis highlights how quickly market direction can change when geopolitical developments dominate trading. Russia had rejected a proposed Turkish moratorium on Black Sea shipping, increasing concerns over export flows. The subsequent comments on possible peace talks reduced some of that risk premium.
Rapeseed followed a similar pattern. Paris futures were supported initially by wider Black Sea concerns and firmer vegetable oil prices, while Winnipeg canola briefly moved above C$840/t. However, the record-sized Canadian harvest and rising seasonal supply are limiting the scope for a sustained move higher without a fresh supply disruption.
The soybean complex remained comparatively firm. US soybean crop conditions fell to 58% good or excellent, below market expectations, adding to doubts about the optimistic yield estimate from the Pro Farmer crop tour. Soymeal has also continued to strengthen, while China has returned to the US export market with 6.8 million tonnes of forward purchases reported.
The next major test for oilseeds is the USDA’s WASDE report, which could provide further guidance on US yields and the balance between production and demand.
Overall, CRM Agri’s latest view is that markets remain supported by supply and geopolitical risks, but prices are vulnerable to rapid reversals when those risks ease. Harvest pressure, particularly in Canada and the wider Northern Hemisphere, is an important factor limiting upside potential.
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